Options-implied expected move through earnings

The move the options market is pricing in through the next earnings print — the real report date paired with the at-the-money implied volatility of the expiry that brackets it. The dollar and percent move, the expected range, and how much richer that expiry trades than the front expiry's vol carried to the same tenor (the event premium). A magnitude, not a direction.

AAPLoptions-implied move through the next print · real-time

Next earnings

2026-10-28

43 days out · after the close

Implied move

±10.09%

±$33.51 on 2026-10-30

ATM IV · event

28.5%

45-day at-the-money vol

Event premium

+0.19pt

vs front vol at this tenor ±9.90%

$298.70spot $332.21$365.72

The band the option market's own pricing convention implies — roughly a two-in-three chance the close lands inside it if that convention holds. It is a property of the math, not a measured hit rate: we do not track how often this band has held. See below.

No accuracy record for ±10.09% — prior implied moves are not archived

Prior option chains are not archived here, so no past implied move exists to score this one against. There is no over/under, no hit rate and no "the market over-priced 5 of the last 8" on this page, and nothing below should be read as one. What is real is the other half: how AAPL actually moved across the session that absorbed each of its last prints.

That half is unavailable for this name too: the calendar carries 4 past quarters for AAPL, none of them with the announcement session, so there is no way to know which trading day absorbed the print. 0 of 4 are measurable — that is the whole sample, reported as it stands rather than measured against the wrong day.

AAPL reports on 2026-10-28 (after the close), 43 days out. The expiry that spans the report (2026-10-30) is pricing an options-implied move of ±10.09% (±$33.51). That's 0.19pt over what the front expiry's vol (27.9%) would imply at the same tenor (±9.90%) — the front's own ±1.95% is a 1-day move and is not the baseline; a move scales with √time, so the comparison is made vol-to-vol at the bracket's tenor. That gap is the event premium the market is paying for the print.

Implied move = spot × ATM implied vol × √(days/365) on the real chain — the ±1σ priced into the expiry that brackets the earnings date. Event premium = bracket move − (front ATM vol × √(bracket days/365)): the front's vol carried to the bracket's tenor, re-derivable as bracket move × front vol ÷ bracket vol. Earnings date from the earnings calendar. A magnitude, not a direction.